2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: August Update
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has turned quieter than the spring forecasts suggested. NOAA now gives the season a 75% chance of finishing below normal and expects 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes. Two named storms have formed so far, neither became a hurricane, and a strengthening El Niño is now actively suppressing much of the tropical Atlantic. That is a meaningful change. It is not a reason to stop preparing.
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast: The Quick Answer
As of August 8, the strongest current evidence points to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA’s August 6 update gives a 75% chance of below normal activity, a 20% chance of near normal activity, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season.[1] Colorado State University’s final seasonal forecast is lower still at 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.[2]
Tropical Storm Arthur and Tropical Storm Bertha are the only named Atlantic systems through August 7. No hurricane has formed yet. NOAA says the season has produced only about 3% of the median full season ACE so far, a measure that combines storm strength and duration.[1]
Chance of a below normal Atlantic season.
Full season range, including Arthur and Bertha.
None had formed through August 7.
Category 3 or stronger remains possible.
What this does not mean: A 75% chance of a below normal season is not a 75% chance that Florida, the Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, or any other coastline avoids a hurricane. NOAA states that its seasonal outlook does not predict landfalls for a specific location. Those outcomes depend on shorter range steering patterns that cannot be forecast months ahead.[1]
Table of Contents
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season So Far
The season has been quiet through the first week of August. The National Hurricane Center’s 2026 season summary lists two named storms, no hurricanes, and no major hurricanes through August 7.[7] Arthur formed in June. Bertha followed in July. Both remained tropical storms.
That slow start is now part of the forecast, not just background information. NOAA’s August outlook includes the two storms already observed and places full season activity at 7 to 13 named storms. If the season finishes inside that 70% probability range, another 5 to 11 named storms would still form between now and November 30.[1]
Arthur and Bertha
Arthur was a tropical storm from June 17 to June 18. Bertha lasted from July 19 to July 23 and was also a tropical storm. The important season level fact is simple: neither became a hurricane, which helps explain why 2026 ACE remains extremely low to date.[7]
NOAA reports that only about 3% of the median seasonal ACE had been recorded when its August 6 outlook was issued.[1] ACE does not measure damage. It measures how much energy named storms generate through a combination of intensity and duration.
We are not past peak season
National Hurricane Center climatology puts the average date of the third named Atlantic storm near August 3 and the average first hurricane near August 11. The climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane activity is around September 10, with most activity concentrated from mid August through mid October.[9]
The basin is behind the average date for the third named storm. It is also entering the part of the calendar when Atlantic activity normally rises fastest.
The next Atlantic storm name on the 2026 list is Cristobal.[15] A name on the list is not a prediction that the storm will form. It is simply the next name the National Hurricane Center will use if another tropical storm develops.
Latest 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts Compared
The most useful August forecasts are the ones that now include what has actually happened during June and July. That changes the weighting. Spring outlooks from NC State, AccuWeather, the University of Arizona, and other groups were useful before the season began, but the latest NOAA, CSU, Tropical Storm Risk, Met Office, and Weather Company updates now have more observed information to work with.
The center of the current forecast picture is noticeably lower than it was in April. NOAA’s official range is broad because it is probabilistic. CSU, Tropical Storm Risk, and The Weather Company are clustered around 9 to 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The Met Office remains higher, which is a useful reminder that uncertainty has narrowed but has not disappeared.
| Source | Update Date | Named Storms | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes | ACE | Main Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA Climate Prediction Center Official U.S. outlook |
August 6 | 7 to 13 | 2 to 6 | 0 to 2 | 30% to 90% of median | 75% chance of below normal activity. Strong El Niño and above normal wind shear are expected to suppress the tropical Atlantic.[1] |
| Colorado State University Final academic forecast |
August 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 50 | Well below normal season. CSU expects El Niño to dominate the tropical circulation during peak season.[2] |
| Tropical Storm Risk Final August update |
August 7 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 55 | Strong El Niño, stronger trade winds, lower tropical rainfall, and higher pressure outweigh slightly warm Main Development Region water.[3] |
| Met Office Higher current outlook |
July 31 | 12 most likely 9 to 15 range |
5 most likely 3 to 7 range |
3 most likely 1 to 5 range |
78 most likely 30 to 126 range |
GloSea6 model based forecast retains a wider and somewhat higher range than NOAA, CSU, and TSR.[4] |
| The Weather Company / Atmospheric G2 Private expert forecast |
July 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | Not publicly listed | Latest published storm count also sits well below the spring outlook and aligns closely with CSU and TSR.[10] |
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Official U.S. outlook- Named storms
- 7 to 13
- Hurricanes
- 2 to 6
- Major
- 0 to 2
- Season odds
- 75% below normal
NOAA expects strong El Niño conditions and above normal Atlantic wind shear to suppress activity.[1]
Colorado State University
Final academic forecast- Named storms
- 9
- Hurricanes
- 4
- Major
- 1
- ACE
- 50
CSU’s final update expects a well below normal season, with El Niño dominating the peak months.[2]
Tropical Storm Risk
Final August update- Named storms
- 10
- Hurricanes
- 4
- Major
- 1
- ACE
- 55
TSR sees several suppressing signals working together, despite slightly warm tropical Atlantic water.[3]
Met Office
Higher current outlook- Named storms
- 12
- Hurricanes
- 5
- Major
- 3
- ACE
- 78
Those are the most likely values inside wider 70% ranges, not fixed totals.[4]
The Weather Company / Atmospheric G2
Private expert forecast- Named storms
- 10
- Hurricanes
- 4
- Major
- 1
- Update
- July 16
The latest published count aligns closely with CSU and TSR.[10]
Consensus reading: The current evidence no longer supports the old 12 to 15 named storm range as the article’s primary forecast. NOAA still allows totals as high as 13 inside its official range, but CSU, TSR, and The Weather Company now cluster at 9 to 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. The Met Office remains a credible higher scenario at 12, 5, and 3.
What Changed Since the April Forecast
In April, the biggest uncertainty was whether El Niño would develop soon enough and strongly enough to interfere with the heart of hurricane season. That question has moved much closer to an answer. El Niño is present, it is strengthening, and NOAA expects it to strengthen further through the remaining hurricane season.[5][1]
The forecast numbers moved lower as that signal became clearer and the first two months of the season stayed quiet.
| Forecast | Earlier Outlook | Latest Outlook | Change That Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| NOAA | May: 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, 1 to 3 major hurricanes | August: 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, 0 to 2 major hurricanes | Official range moved lower, and below normal activity now has a 75% probability.[1] |
| Colorado State University | April: 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, ACE 90 | August: 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, ACE 50 | CSU cut named storms by four and nearly halved its expected ACE.[2] |
| The Weather Company / Atmospheric G2 | April: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes | July: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane | Its latest forecast moved into the same lower cluster as CSU and TSR.[10] |
The key difference is that El Niño is no longer only a preseason expectation
NOAA’s July ENSO Diagnostic Discussion confirmed El Niño conditions and gave a 97% chance that El Niño would continue through early spring 2027.[5] NOAA’s August hurricane outlook goes one step further for the Atlantic season: it gives a 90% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño during August, September, and October.[1]
That distinction matters. A weak or late El Niño might not have been enough to dominate peak hurricane season. A strong event already influencing the atmosphere is a much more credible suppressing signal.
The Atlantic has also failed to build much early season momentum
Two tropical storms through early August do not decide the final season by themselves. The calendar still has plenty of room. Still, forecasters are no longer projecting from an empty page. They can now see the actual trade winds, moisture pattern, sea level pressure, tropical waves, wind shear, and storm production that carried through June and July.
That observed pattern is why the August update deserves to replace the April article rather than sit beside it. The old forecast was accurate for the information available then. It is not the best description of the season now.
Why the 2026 Forecast Has Shifted Lower
Strong El Niño is now the dominant suppressing factor
El Niño changes the large scale wind pattern over the tropics. In the Atlantic and Caribbean, one of the most important effects is stronger vertical wind shear. A tropical cyclone needs organized thunderstorms stacked around a coherent center. Strong shear can tilt that circulation and separate the deepest thunderstorms from the low level center.
NOAA expects above normal vertical wind shear over much of the Main Development Region during August through October. Tropical Storm Risk reaches the same broad conclusion and calls El Niño a strong suppressing influence for the rest of summer and autumn.[1][3]
Why this signal carries weight
NOAA notes that every Atlantic season since 1950 that coincided with a strong El Niño during the core season finished with below normal overall activity under its historical classification.[1]
That history does not determine the exact 2026 storm count. It explains why the probability has shifted so strongly toward a quieter basin.
Stronger trade winds are another headwind
NOAA reports stronger than normal trade winds across parts of the Atlantic Main Development Region. Tropical Storm Risk also expects stronger trade winds across the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic and treats that as a strong suppressing signal.[1][3]
Stronger low level trade winds can work against the kind of broad, organized circulation that helps tropical waves consolidate. They also fit the larger atmospheric pattern forecasters expect from a strong El Niño.
Warm Atlantic water has not disappeared, but it is no longer winning the argument
Water in the Atlantic Main Development Region is still slightly warmer than the 1991 to 2020 climatology in several analyses. NOAA says those temperatures are modestly above average, while Tropical Storm Risk expects that warmth to provide some enhancement to tropical cyclone potential.[1][3]
The important comparison is relative warmth. NOAA notes that the Main Development Region is not unusually warm compared with the rest of the global tropics. In its August reasoning, that makes Atlantic warmth closer to neutral or even a minor suppressing influence rather than the powerful boost seen in exceptionally warm recent seasons.[1]
Moisture and pressure patterns also look less supportive
Tropical Storm Risk says seasonal models favor below normal precipitation and above normal sea level pressure across much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean through the heart of the season. That combination is consistent with more frequent sinking air and fewer long stretches of deep tropical convection.[3]
NOAA is also watching the West African monsoon. Its August outlook describes the large scale monsoon circulation as near average, but with rainfall displaced farther north and inland in a way that is less favorable for tropical cyclone development as waves move off Africa.[1]
The subtropical Atlantic is the area that keeps the forecast from becoming a zero risk story
NOAA notes that storms in El Niño years can shift toward the Gulf Coast and subtropical Atlantic because the deep tropical Main Development Region becomes more hostile. Tropical Storm Risk also sees the subtropical Atlantic as relatively more favorable than the deep tropics, even though its latest models are less favorable there than they were a month ago.[1][3]
That leaves room for storms to form outside the classic long track Cape Verde pattern. It also explains why a quiet basin forecast cannot be converted into a safe coastline forecast.
Does the Quiet Start Mean Hurricane Season Is Almost Over?
No. The quiet start is real, and the seasonal forecast has moved lower because of it. The calendar still matters just as much.
Atlantic activity normally accelerates during August, reaches its climatological peak around September 10, and remains elevated into October.[9] NOAA says most of the activity it still expects in 2026 is likely during August, September, and October.[1]
That creates a useful way to read the outlook. The probability of a hyperactive 2026 season has dropped sharply. The probability of at least some meaningful tropical activity during the remaining peak months has not disappeared.
What NOAA’s range implies from August 8 forward: Because two named storms have already formed, a final total inside NOAA’s 7 to 13 storm range would mean roughly 5 to 11 additional named storms. NOAA still allows 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes for the full season.[1]
The current seven day National Hurricane Center outlook is quiet as of August 8.[8] That is useful information for this week. It says nothing about the second half of August, September, or October. Short range tropical outlooks and seasonal outlooks answer different questions, so both belong in a serious storm plan.
What the 2026 Forecast Means for U.S. Landfall Risk
NOAA does not issue a seasonal forecast for where hurricanes will make landfall. The agency is explicit about the reason: landfall depends on storm formation, timing, and steering patterns that only become predictable as an individual storm exists and approaches land.[1]
Colorado State University does publish statistical landfall probabilities. Its final August outlook lowered the chance of at least one major hurricane landfall somewhere along the continental U.S. coastline to about 16%, compared with a long term average near 43%.[2] That is a modeled probability for a Category 3 or stronger U.S. landfall. It is not the chance of any tropical storm or hurricane affecting your area.
Tropical Storm Risk’s August model separately forecasts three U.S. tropical storm landfalls and one U.S. hurricane landfall for the season, while specifically declining to forecast intense U.S. hurricane landfalls because the group says it does not have useful skill for that quantity at seasonal lead times.[3]
Do not turn basin odds into a county forecast
A below normal Atlantic season means fewer or shorter lived storms are more likely across the entire basin. It does not tell you which side of Florida will be hit, whether the northern Gulf Coast will have a hurricane, or whether a storm will curve away from the Carolinas. Those questions become answerable only after a real system forms.
Wind category is still only one part of the hazard
The Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale classifies hurricanes by sustained wind. It does not account for storm surge, rainfall flooding, tornadoes, or the size of the wind field.[11] A lower category hurricane or tropical storm can still create serious water problems.
The National Hurricane Center warns that storm surge can move inland through bays, rivers, and canals.[12] That is why evacuation decisions should come from local emergency management and official surge guidance, not from the seasonal storm count or the category alone.
What to Do Now Before the September Peak
A quieter forecast gives you something useful: time. The shelves are not being stripped for a named hurricane this morning. Gas stations are operating normally. You can check the generator, print insurance documents, replace dead batteries, and fix a missing charger without doing it in a crowd.
Start with the failures that create the most trouble during an outage or evacuation.
Use your county emergency management map. Write down where you would go and which roads you would use if surge or local officials require evacuation.
Photograph rooms, major belongings, exterior walls, roof areas you can safely view, and important receipts. Store copies away from the house or in secure cloud storage.
Water, shelf stable food, medications, flashlights, batteries, first aid, pet supplies, hygiene items, chargers, and printed contacts should already have a place.
Use National Hurricane Center updates, Wireless Emergency Alerts, local emergency notifications, and a battery powered or hand crank weather radio.
Charge battery banks and portable power stations. Test your generator outdoors. Confirm the exact devices you intend to run and the cords or adapters they require.
Clear gutters, identify loose furniture, check shutters or window protection, trim obvious hazards safely, and decide where outdoor objects will go before a warning is issued.
The StormReadyHome printable checklist covers emergency supplies, family communication, evacuation, insurance, utility shutoffs, home preparation, storm actions, and after storm safety in one place.[16]
Download the Hurricane Preparedness Checklist
Print it now, keep it with your emergency supplies, and update the contact and utility pages before a storm is being tracked toward your area.
Download the Hurricane Preparedness ChecklistPlan for the Outage, Not Just the Landfall
A home can avoid major structural damage and still lose power for days. The first practical questions are not about buying the largest generator. They are about which loads actually matter in your household.
Write down the equipment that must stay powered. Common priorities include phones, medical equipment, a refrigerator or freezer, fans, lights, a router, and limited cooking equipment. Then separate energy needs from output needs. A battery can have enough stored energy for a refrigerator and still fail if its inverter cannot handle the compressor starting surge.
The StormReadyHome Solar Generator Calculator is built to help estimate battery capacity, continuous output, startup demand, and solar charging needs from the appliances and runtime you enter. Treat the result as a planning estimate and verify critical equipment requirements from the appliance label or manufacturer documentation.
Calculate Backup Power
Estimate the capacity and inverter output needed for your selected appliances and outage duration.
Review Solar Emergency Power
Understand portable power stations, solar charging, and practical blackout use cases before you buy.
Check Your Blackout Readiness
Find the gaps in your current outage plan before the next warning or utility failure.
Fuel powered generator safety is not optional
Ready.gov says portable generators should be used only outdoors and away from windows because carbon monoxide can build to deadly levels inside homes, garages, and other enclosed or partially enclosed spaces.[13] Do not run a generator in a garage, even with the door open.
If a generator will connect to home circuits rather than individual appliances, use properly installed transfer equipment and qualified electrical help. Do not improvise a connection to house wiring.
Do Not Let a Quiet Forecast Delay Flood Planning
Flood risk is one of the easiest parts of hurricane preparation to misunderstand because it does not line up neatly with hurricane categories. Rainfall flooding can happen far inland. Surge can move water into areas that do not take the strongest winds.
FEMA notes that standard homeowners insurance policies typically do not cover flood damage, which is why flood coverage is handled separately.[14] If a flood loss would create a financial problem for your household, review the policy now rather than waiting for a storm to appear on the five day map.
Renters should check the same issue from a different angle. A landlord’s property policy protects the building owner’s interest. It does not automatically replace a renter’s damaged furniture, electronics, clothing, or other belongings.
The practical task is simple: know what your current policy covers, know what it excludes, and keep a recent home inventory. A phone full of room by room photos taken before the storm is more useful than trying to remember every damaged item afterward.
Preparedness for Homeowners, Renters, and Small Businesses
For homeowners
Finish the physical tasks that become difficult once a watch is issued. Test shutters or panels. Find the fasteners. Check where outdoor furniture will go. Make sure the generator starts. Confirm extension cords are appropriate for the load and long enough to keep a portable generator outside and away from openings.
For renters
Focus on the parts of the plan you control. Know whether the building is in an evacuation zone. Keep a portable blackout kit. Charge power banks. Save your lease, renter’s insurance information, identification, medication list, and emergency contacts somewhere you can reach from your phone and on paper.
For small businesses
Put the shutdown and reopening plan on paper. List employee contacts, critical vendors, insurance information, data backup steps, equipment that must be moved off the floor, and the person authorized to decide when the business can reopen. A plan that exists only in one manager’s phone becomes a problem if that person cannot get to the building.
For every household
Choose one out of area contact and print the number. Decide how family members will reconnect if cell data is unreliable. Keep medications, pet needs, chargers, basic food, water, and important documents in the same plan. The purpose is not to create a perfect emergency room in your garage. It is to remove the avoidable problems before weather creates the unavoidable ones.
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season FAQ
What is NOAA’s latest 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast?
NOAA’s August 6 update gives a 75% chance of a below normal Atlantic season. Its 70% probability ranges are 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and 0 to 2 major hurricanes for the full 2026 season.[1]
Is the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season expected to be below normal?
Yes. Below normal activity is now NOAA’s most likely category at 75%. Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk also expect well below average activity, with both forecasting only four hurricanes and one major hurricane.[1][2][3]
How many named Atlantic storms have formed in 2026?
Two named storms, Arthur and Bertha, had formed through August 7. Neither became a hurricane.[7]
Has a hurricane formed in the Atlantic yet in 2026?
No hurricane had formed through August 7. National Hurricane Center climatology places the average date of the first Atlantic hurricane near August 11, so the season is entering that benchmark now.[7][9]
Why is El Niño reducing the 2026 hurricane forecast?
El Niño commonly increases upper level winds and vertical wind shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean. NOAA expects strong or very strong El Niño conditions during the peak months, and its models favor above normal wind shear across the Main Development Region.[1]
When is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season?
Atlantic activity normally increases sharply during August and reaches its climatological peak around September 10. The most active stretch is generally from mid August through mid October.[9]
What is the next Atlantic storm name in 2026?
Cristobal is the next name on the 2026 Atlantic list after Arthur and Bertha.[15]
Does a below normal forecast mean Florida or the Gulf Coast is safe?
No. NOAA’s seasonal outlook describes activity across the whole Atlantic basin and is not a landfall forecast for Florida, the Gulf Coast, the East Coast, or any other location. Local risk becomes clearer only when an individual storm forms and short range forecasts can resolve its track.[1]
Where should I get live hurricane information?
Use the National Hurricane Center for official tropical weather outlooks, advisories, forecast cones, watches, warnings, and storm surge information. Use your local emergency management agency for evacuation orders, shelters, and county specific instructions.
Final Takeaway: The Forecast Is Quieter, the Preparation Window Is Better
The evidence on August 8 is much clearer than it was in April. El Niño developed. It strengthened. The Atlantic produced only two named storms through early August, neither became a hurricane, and NOAA, CSU, TSR, and The Weather Company all lowered their expectations as the season progressed.
That is good news compared with a forecast for an explosive season. It should change how we describe 2026. It should not change the basic household work that has to be done before a landfall threat exists.
NOAA still expects most remaining activity during August, September, and October.[1] The climatological peak is still ahead.[9] A lower storm count gives fewer opportunities for a damaging landfall, but it does not tell you where the storms that do form will go.
Use the quiet stretch for the boring work that matters later. Print the contacts. Charge the batteries. Test the generator outside. Check the evacuation zone. Photograph the house. Review the insurance. Decide what the refrigerator, medical equipment, phones, fans, and lights would need during a multi day outage.
When a storm finally appears on the map, the goal is to spend your time making the last decisions, not discovering the first missing piece.
Sources and References
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.” Updated outlook issued August 6, 2026. NOAA 2026 Atlantic hurricane outlook
- Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project. Final 2026 Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast, issued August 5, 2026. CSU seasonal hurricane forecasting
- Tropical Storm Risk, EuroTempest. “August Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2026.” Issued August 7, 2026. TSR August 2026 forecast PDF
- UK Met Office. “North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2026.” Updated July 31, 2026. Met Office 2026 Atlantic seasonal forecast
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.” Issued July 9, 2026. NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
- NOAA Climate Prediction Center. “ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions.” Prepared August 3, 2026. NOAA CPC ENSO status and predictions PDF
- NOAA National Hurricane Center. “2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season” season summary and tropical cyclone reports index. NHC 2026 Atlantic season summary
- NOAA National Hurricane Center. Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook. Status referenced at 2 a.m. EDT August 8, 2026. NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- NOAA National Hurricane Center. “Tropical Cyclone Climatology.” NHC Atlantic hurricane climatology
- The Weather Company. August 5, 2026 review of the final CSU outlook, including the most recent July 16 Weather Company / Atmospheric G2 seasonal forecast. The Weather Company August outlook review
- NOAA National Hurricane Center. “Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.” NHC Hurricane Wind Scale
- NOAA National Hurricane Center. “Storm Surge Overview.” NHC storm surge overview
- Ready.gov. “Power Outages.” Ready.gov power outage safety
- Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Flood Insurance.” FEMA flood insurance guidance
- NOAA National Hurricane Center. “Tropical Cyclone Names.” NHC Atlantic storm name lists
- StormReadyHome. “Hurricane Preparedness Checklist.” StormReadyHome hurricane preparedness checklist